Irreversible Decisions under Uncertainty

In this book, the authors present an alternative approach to optimal stopping problems. The basic ideas and techniques of the approach can be explained much simpler than the standard methods in the literature on optimal stopping problems.

Irreversible Decisions under Uncertainty

Here, two highly experienced authors present an alternative approach to optimal stopping problems. The basic ideas and techniques of the approach can be explained much simpler than the standard methods in the literature on optimal stopping problems. The monograph will teach the reader to apply the technique to many problems in economics and finance, including new ones. From the technical point of view, the method can be characterized as option pricing via the Wiener-Hopf factorization.

News about News

News about News


Modeling Environment Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty

In this chapter we are focusing on the irreversible character of climate ... of irreversible decisions under uncertainties (including uncertain climate ...

Modeling Environment Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty

The issues of technology and uncertainty are very much at the heart of the policy debate of how much to control greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of doing so are present and high while the benefits are very much in the future and, most importantly, they are highly uncertain. Whilst there is broad consensus on the key elements of climate change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. The book looks at different ways of reconciling the needs for sustainability and equity with the costs of action now. Presenting a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy, this book describes mathematical models and their predictions. The goal is to provide a practitioner’s guide for doing the science of economics and climate change. Because the assumptions motivating different problems in the economics of climate change have different complexities, a number of models are presented with varying levels of difficulty: reduced-form and structural, partial- and general-equilibrium, closed-form and computational. A unifying theme of these models is the incorporation of a number of price and quantity instruments and an analysis of their respective efficacies. This book presents models that contain structural uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty that economic agents respond to via their risk attitudes. The novelty of this book is to relate the effects of risk and risk attitudes to environment-improving technological innovation.

Marketing Decisions Under Uncertainty

Further, part or all of the cost involving in this marketing activity are irreversible in the sense that it may not be recovered.

Marketing Decisions Under Uncertainty

Remarkable advance in quantitative marketing research in the last two decades, incorporating applied microeconomic theories, operations research and management applications, has brought the field of marketing alongside with finance, accounting and productionto within an executive'sreach for a sophisticatedtoolbox for decision making in an increasingly competitive and complex business environment. A quick look at Marketing, a recently published book edited by Eliashberg and Lilien would indicate even to the casual reader the extent of such methodological progress made by marketing scholars. Even in such an impressive and nearly exhaustive collection oftopics, with the notable exception pointed out by the editors of applicationsofthe scanner data, and in spite of the reference to it, an important omission is related to the issues ofmarketing decisions under conditions ofuncertainty. It is fairly obvious to the marketing executive and academician alike to recognize the important role uncertaintyplays in marketingdecisions such as pricing, promotion, advertising, sales force management, and others. The major purpose of this study is to address certain major marketing decision variables within the general context of an uncertain environment. While there have been significant progresses in analyzing marketing behaviors in a stochastic environment,the sourcesscatteramong differentmanagementandmarketingjoumals; and to the extent that these issues are addressed at all, they have aimed mainly at each separate, specifictopic at a time. Thus, our effort to bring these studies together in the same framework should facilitate our in-depth analysis of these important phenomena.

Market Imperfections and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Chapter 9: Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty in General Equilibrium. ... decision of irreversible investment under macroeconomic uncertainty in a ...

Market Imperfections and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Market Imperfections and Macroeconomic Dynamics is based upon a collection of papers originally presented at the 5th Theory and Methods in Macroeconomics (T2M) meeting in Paris, France, 2002. The contributions in this volume focus on a central theme: the aggregate dynamic consequences of market imperfections. Such effects are of great interest to researchers in macroeconomics as these imperfections play a primary role in the persistence of aggregate output, the characteristics of the business cycles and the interactions of agents over time. Incorporating up-to-date techniques and methods, these contributions exemplify the remarkable progress made by macroeconomists in tackling these issues. The primary market for Market Imperfections and Macroeconomic Dynamics is academic researchers in economics and graduate students specializing in macroeconomics. Divisions of economic studies in public administration and in financial organizations will also find this book beneficial.

Dynamic Programming

6 S5 < \ so \\\ Q \ \\ in 4 Ny U $ 3 5 #2 O 5 3 T ... 8.3 Rules for Making Irreversible Decisions Under Uncertainty 8.3.1 Irreversible decisions and ...

Dynamic Programming

Humans interact with and are part of the mysterious processes of nature. Inevitably they have to discover how to manage the environment for their long-term survival and benefit. To do this successfully means learning something about the dynamics of natural processes, and then using the knowledge to work with the forces of nature for some desired outcome. These are intriguing and challenging tasks. This book describes a technique which has much to offer in attempting to achieve the latter task. A knowledge of dynamic programming is useful for anyone interested in the optimal management of agricultural and natural resources for two reasons. First, resource management problems are often problems of dynamic optimization. The dynamic programming approach offers insights into the economics of dynamic optimization which can be explained much more simply than can other approaches. Conditions for the optimal management of a resource can be derived using the logic of dynamic programming, taking as a starting point the usual economic definition of the value of a resource which is optimally managed through time. This is set out in Chapter I for a general resource problem with the minimum of mathematics. The results are related to the discrete maximum principle of control theory. In subsequent chapters dynamic programming arguments are used to derive optimality conditions for particular resources.

Investment under Uncertainty

On the contrary, caution when making an irreversible decision remains important, but for somewhat different reasons. Consider one firm contemplating its ...

Investment under Uncertainty

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

A Study of Business Decisions Under Uncertainty

The Probability of the Improbable - With Examples from the Oil and Gas Exploration ... 2003, Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty, and Irreversible Investments, ...

A Study of Business Decisions Under Uncertainty

This dissertation will discuss the uncertainty encountered in the daily operations of businesses. The concepts will be developed by first giving an overview of probability and statistics as used in our everyday activities, such as the basic principles of probability, univariate and multivariate statistics, data clustering and mapping, as well as time sequence and spectral analysis. The examples used will be from the oil and gas exploration industry because the risks taken in this industry are normally quite large and are ideal for showing the application of the various techniques for minimizing risk. Subsequently, the discussion will deal with basic risk analysis, spatial and time variations of risk, geotechnical risk analysis, risk aversion and how it is affected by personal biases, and how to use portfolios to hedge risk together with the application of real options. Next, fractal analysis and its application to economics and risk analysis will be examined, followed by some examples showing the change in the Value at Risk under Fractal Brownian Motions. Finally, a neural network application is shown whereby some of these risks and risk factors will be combined to forecast the best possible outcome given a certain knowledge base. The chapters will discuss: Basic probability techniques and uncertainty principles Analysis and diversification for exploration projects The value and risk of information in the decision process Simulation techniques and modeling of uncertainty Project valuation and project risk return Modeling risk propensity or preference analysis of exploration projects Application of fractals to risk analysis Simultaneous prediction of strategic risk and decision attributes using multivariate statistics and neural networks"

Optimal Control of Age structured Populations in Economy Demography and the Environment

The analysis in the present chapter relates to two different strands of ... also relates to the literature on irreversible decision under uncertainty that ...

Optimal Control of Age structured Populations in Economy  Demography  and the Environment

This book covers a wide range of topics within mathematical modelling and the optimization of economic, demographic, technological and environmental phenomena. Each chapter is written by experts in their field and represents new advances in modelling theory and practice. These essays are exemplary of the fruitful interaction between theory and practice when exploring global and local changes. The unifying theme of the book is the use of mathematical models and optimization methods to describe age-structured populations in economy, demography, technological change, and the environment. Emphasis is placed on deterministic dynamic models that take age or size structures, delay effects, and non-standard decision variables into account. In addition, the contributions deal with the age structure of assets, resources, and populations under study. Interdisciplinary modelling has enormous potential for discovering new insights in global and regional development. Optimal Control of Age-structured Populations in Economy, Demography, and the Environment is a rich and excellent source of information on state-of-the-art modelling expertise and references. The book provides the necessary mathematical background for readers from different areas, such as applied sciences, management sciences and operations research, which helps guide the development of practical models. As well as this the book also surveys the current practice in applied modelling and looks at new research areas for a general mathematical audience. This book will be of interest primarily to researchers, postgraduate students, as well as a wider scientific community, including those focussing on the subjects of applied mathematics, environmental sciences, economics, demography, management, and operations research.

Food Energy and Water Sustainability

apparent relationship is of particular interest in the context of a firm's use ... but irreversible investment decisions in the face of uncertainty (Folta ...

Food  Energy and Water Sustainability

Societies around the world face an increasingly uncertain future as social and ecological changes create pressure on resource governance, and this uncertainty calls for new models that illuminate the intersections of civil society, public sector, and private sector resource management. This volume presents a diversity of collaborations between various governance actors in the management of the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) nexus. It analyses the ability of emergent governance structures to cope with the complexity of future challenges across FEW systems. Divided into two sections, chapters in the first half of the book present a collection of case studies from around the world exemplifying how FEW nexus challenges are addressed in a multitude of ways and by a variety of actors. Chapters in the second half offer broader perspectives on the management of FEW and underline the lessons that emerge from applying a FEW lens to the question of natural resource governance. The varied examples in this book highlight that the management of FEW is often a question of reinventing, adapting, and building upon existing practices. Such practices are deeply embedded in unique socio-cultural, environmental, and political contexts as well as ‘hard’ infrastructures. Most of all, this edited volume seeks to communicate the wealth of ideas from committed individuals who continue to work to improve natural resource governance and our sustainable futures.

The Economics of Land Use

... into the intertemporal model of irreversible decisions under uncertainty . Modeling Intertemporal Characteristics Because some land uses in the tropics ...

The Economics of Land Use

The Economics of Land Use brings together the most significant journal essays in key areas of contemporary agricultural, food and resource economics and land use policy. The editors provide a state-of-the-art overview of the topic and access to the economic literature that has shaped contemporary perspectives on land use analysis and policy.

Entry and Exit Decisions with Competition Under Uncertainty

Demers ( 1991 ) analyzes the effect of the arrival of information about market demand over time on an irreversible investment decision under uncertainty . His model emphasizes the informational benefit of waiting to invest under ...

Entry and Exit Decisions with Competition Under Uncertainty


Recent Accomplishments in Applied Forest Economics Research

In their seminal studies, Henry (1974); Arrow & Fisher (1974) treated a classical case of land-use decisions under uncertainty. The latter study formulated ...

Recent Accomplishments in Applied Forest Economics Research

The papers in this book were 'in a preliminary version' presented at an international con ference May 21-25, 2002 in Gilleleje, Denmark. It was a joint event, namely the biennial meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics and the 3rd Berkeley-KVL Con ference. The Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics (SSFE) was established in 1958 as a forum for forest economists in the Nordic countries to meet and exchange ideas on research and education. Alternating between Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, biennial ordinary meetings have taken place ever since. The number of participants has increased from 10-15 in the first decade to more than 80 in 2002. In the last two decades prominent researchers from outside Scandinavia have been invited to present papers at the biennial meetings and also to participate in ad hoc working groups. The Berkeley-KVL part of the conference is based on a research collaboration between The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University (KVL), Copenhagen, University of Cali fornia at Berkeley, and Oregon State University. It was initiated in 1993 within the frame work of a research programme at KVL: 'Stochastic Decision Analysis in Forest Manage ment' and since 1996 extended to the programme 'Economic Optimisation of Multiple-Use Forestry and Other Natural Resources'.

Economic Development and Environmental Sustainability

In turn, the governments of these countries often fail to create policies that ... this combination of irreversible decisions under uncertainty calls for ...

Economic Development and Environmental Sustainability

Economic growth as we know it today cannot persist indefinitely if it entails continuous degradation of natural resources and the environment. While in a few countries around the world it appears that environmental degradation has been the result of rapid economic growth, in the vast majority of the developing countries the environment has been equally spoiled despite slow or even negative economic growth. This book provides new insights on the common roots of economic stagnation, poverty and environmental degradation which, unfortunately, generally reside in misguided government policies and priorities. By doing this, the volume seeks to provide a broader policy option framework than those found in conventional policy analyses, mainly dominated by the "Washington Consensus". It shows that a major omission of the conventional view is that governments tend to allocate government expenditures in a biased way favouring subsidies to the economic elites to the detriment of investments in public goods, including human capital, R&D, as well as the development of institutions (environmental and otherwise), which are vital for long run growth, poverty reduction and environmental sustainability.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Institute of Medicine, Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice, Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty. 238 ENVIRONMENTAL DECISIONS IN ...

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Real Options in Capital Investment

... ment for firms with market power that are facing irreversible decisions ... entry and exit decisions under uncertainty , showing that in the presence of ...

Real Options in Capital Investment

A nation's culture and structure influence both the type and degree of innovation achievable within its society. Examines and discusses the latest developments in the valuation of capital investment opportunities.

Strategic Investment

We extend the analysis to staged (compound) growth options, such as in R & D or ... when making an irreversible investment decision under uncertainty.11 If ...

Strategic Investment

Corporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes cutting-edge developments in corporate finance and related fields--in particular, real options and game theory--to help bridge this gap. In clear, straightforward exposition and through numerous examples and applications from various industries, Han Smit and Lenos Trigeorgis set forth an extended valuation framework for competitive strategies. The book follows a problem-solving approach that synthesizes ideas from game theory, real options, and strategy. Thinking in terms of options-games can help managers address questions such as: When is it best to invest early to preempt competitive entry, and when to wait? Should a firm compete in R&D or adopt an accommodating stance? How does one value growth options or infrastructure investments? The authors provide a wide range of valuation examples, such as acquisition strategies, R&D investment in high-tech sectors, joint research ventures, product introductions in consumer electronics, infrastructure, and oil exploration investment. Representing a major step beyond standard real options or strategy analysis, and extending the power of real options and strategic thinking in a rigorous fashion, Strategic Investment will be an indispensable guide and resource for corporate managers, MBA students, and academics alike.

The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change

Mitigation can be further preferred if some decisions made under uncertainty are irreversible . In any analysis of decision under uncertainty , irreversible ...

The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change

An introduction to the climate-change debate for non-specialists.

Partial Interests in Land

When land conversion is irreversible , conversion decisions are made under uncertainty , and decisions can be delayed to take advantage of new information ...

Partial Interests in Land