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Modelling the Southern Region

Author: Chris C Ford
Publisher: The Crowood Press
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Comprehensive in its coverage, Modelling the Southern Region - 1948 to the Present presents an historical overview of the post-war Southern Region of British Railways before guiding the reader through a series of detailed modelling projects, illustrating all of the techniques and equipment required, from building freight, locomotives and architecture, to modernization, electrification and the third rail. These projects make use of the best available commercial model-making products and provide an introduction to scratch-building your own lineside items. Each project is supported by a short historical background section and suggestions as to how each project could be further developed. The result will be a set of models that sets the modeller on track for a first-class model of the Southern Region. Contents include: full listings of all tools and materials; an explanation of the techniques used and possible alternative methods; step by step instructions from simple to more advanced projects; a detailed but easily digestible approach to building both ready-to-run and kit-built items; techniques and ideas on how to construct those items not yet available from the model trade. This is an essential reference for all those who wish to build a model railway based on the post-war Southern Region of British Railways and is fully illustrated with 237 colour photographs detailing modelling techniques.


Modelling the Midland Region from 1948

Author: Colin Boocock
Publisher: The Crowood Press
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The London Midland Region covered a huge part of England from London to the north and north west, from the Scottish borders into the south west. It served huge metropolitan cities and towns, supported heavy industry, and ran through areas of outstanding natural beauty such as the Peak District and Lake District. Modelling the Midland Region from 1948 is an essential guide to creating your own model based on the London Midland Region of the British Railways era. It covers the history of the London Midland Region; British Rail and LMS locomotives; passenger and goods rolling stock; structures and scenery unique to the region, and signalling and electrification. The authors of this book are trustees of the charity Famous Trains model railway and directors of its operating company Famous Trains Ltd. An essential guide to creating your own model based on the London Midland region, for all scales and levels of interest, and fully illustrated with 232 colour photographs and 15 diagrams.


Environmental Modelling and Prediction

Author: Gongbing Peng
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
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In this book the authors consider the natural environment as an integrated system. The physical, chemical and biological processes that govern the behaviour of the environmental system can thus be understood through mathematical modelling, and their evolution can be studied by means of numerical simulation. The book contains a summary of various efficient approaches in atmospheric prediction, such as numerical weather prediction and statistical forecast of climate change, as well as other successful methods in land surface modelling. The authors explore new theories and methods in environment prediction such as systems analysis and information theory. Attention is given to new achievements in remote sensing tele-metering and geographic information systems.


Agricultural Effects on Ground and Surface Waters

Author: J. H. A. M. Steenvoorden
Publisher: International Assn of Hydrological Sciences
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3D Multi scale Finite Element Analysis of the Present day Crustal State of Stress and the Recent Kinematic Behaviour of the Northern and Central Upper Rhine Graben

Author: Thies Buchmann
Publisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
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This thesis focuses on the contemporary stress state of a continental rift structure, the Upper Rhine Graben, and its present-day reactivation and kinematic behaviour. The graben is currently characterised by relatively slow tectonic deformation accompanied by low to medium seismicity and ongoing subsidence. In this context, the reactivation potential of pre-existing faults associated with the graben structure is one of the main goals of this thesis. Three dimensional finite element modelling is used for simulating the stress state of the study area. Based on the evaluation of the fault reactivation potential, a possible contribution of mechanical earth modelling to earthquake hazard assessment is also investigated. Another task of this thesis is the development of a method and work process for the construction of complex model geometries based on the different data types available. In order to establish a procedure that is independent of local computing and software facilities, the work-flow used is predominantly based on commercial software packages. A brief introduction is given on crustal stresses, their definition, determination and classification. Two approaches of shear failure reactivation evaluation, independent of the rheological parameter of fault surfaces, are discussed. In addition, a summary of the finite element method is given. This includes the influence of mesh quality and the implementation of contact problems as well as the ABAQUS implementation of the material models used (elasticity and elasto-plasticity). The thesis also refers to the approach of multi-scale modelling, nesting or sub-modelling using ABAQUS. The consequences of this approach on the boundary conditions and the model geometries are discussed.


Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change

Author: Manola Brunet India
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
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For the very first time, this book provides updated, integrated and organized, theoretical and methodological information on regional climate change and the associated environmental and socio-economic impacts on a regional scale. The most recent findings in the field of long-term climate change, which improve our understanding of the global climate puzzle, will be presented. Readers are introduced to state-of-the-art research in downscaling and GCMs, which involve the construction of reliable regional climate scenarios and the solution to key problems regarding the assessment of the impacts of climate change in the most important geographical areas of the world, from the Arctic to Antarctic regions, with special emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere.


Past Climate Variability in South America and Surrounding Regions

Author: Francoise Vimeux
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
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South America is a unique place where a number of past climate archives are ava- able from tropical to high latitude regions. It thus offers a unique opportunity to explore past climate variability along a latitudinal transect from the Equator to Polar regions and to study climate teleconnections. Most climate records from tropical and subtropical South America for the past 20,000 years have been interpreted as local responses to shift in the mean position and intensity of the InterTropical Conv- gence Zone due to tropical and extratropical forcings or to changes in the South American Summer Monsoon. Further South, the role of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds on global climate has been highly investigated with both paleodata and coupled climate models. However the regional response over South America during the last 20,000 years is much more variable from place to place than pre- ously thought. The factors that govern the spatial patterns of variability on millennial scale resolution are still to be understood. The question of past natural rates and ranges of climate conditions over South America is therefore of special relevance in this context since today millions of people live under climates where any changes in monsoon rainfall can lead to catastrophic consequences.


Groundwater Contamination Use of Models in Decision Making

Author: G. Jousma
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
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The protection of groundwater resources has emerged in recent years as a high priority topic on the agenda of many countries. In responding to the growing concern over deteriorating groundwater quality, many countries are developing a comprehensive regulatory framework for the management of subsurface water resources with management referring to both quantity and quality aspects. Within this framework, groundwater models are rapidly coming to playa central role in the development of protection and rehabilitation strategies. These models provide forecasts of the future state of the groundwater aquifer systems and/or the unsaturated zone in response to proposed management initiatives. For example, models will predict the effects of implementing a proposed management scheme on water levels and on the transport and fate of pollutants. The models are now used in the formulation of policies and regulations, the issuing of permits, design of monitoring and data collection systems, and the development of enforcement actions. The growth in the use of these sophisticated tools has led to many unforeseen problems in groundwater management. Lingering issues include reliability of codes, quality assurance in model development and applications, efficient utiliza tion of human and material resources, technology transfer and training. Some issues have legal ramifications, as in cases where the applications of models have been contested in courts.


Forest growth modelling and prediction

Author: Stephen R. Shifley
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Interdisciplinary Public Health Reasoning and Epidemic Modelling The Case of Black Death

Author: George Christakos
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
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This book introduces a novel synthetic paradigm of public health reasoning and epidemic modelling, and then implements it in the study of the infamous 14th century AD Black Death disaster that killed at least one-fourth of the European population. The book starts by focusing on the intellectual context in which epidemic research takes place, in a way that accounts for the interdisciplinary and multicultural trends of the emerging Conceptual Age. The authors maintain that for public health scientists to function in an often complex environment, they should be aware of the divergent conceptions of knowledge and the technological changes that these imply, the multiple and often uncertain databases available and their reliability, the different styles of thinking adopted by the disciplines involved, and the importance of developing sound interdisciplinary knowledge integration skills. A unique feature of the book is that it takes the reader through all four major phases of interdisciplinary inquiry: adequate conceptualization (in terms of metaphors, methodological principles, epistemic rules, and argumentation modes), rigorous formulation (involving sophisticated mathematical models), substantive interpretation (in terms of correspondence principles between form and meaning), and innovative implementation (using advanced systems technology and multi-sourced real world databases). This approach is then applied to scientifically advance the spatiotemporal characterization of the Black Death epidemic, thus going beyond the sensationalistic narration of events found in other publications. The book includes the most complete collection of interdisciplinary information sources available about the Black Death epidemic, each one systematically documented, tabulated, and analyzed. It also presents, for the first time, a series of detailed space-time maps of Black Death mortality, infected area propagation, and epidemic centroid paths throughout the 14th century AD Europe. Preparation of the maps took into account the uncertain nature of the data and integrated a variety of interdisciplinary knowledge bases about the devastating epidemic. These maps provide researchers and the interested public with an informative and substantive description of the Black Death dynamics (temporal evolution, local and global geographical patterns, etc.), and can help one discover an underlying coherence in disease distribution that was buried within reams of contemporary evidence that had so far defied quantitative understanding. The book carefully analyzes the findings of synthetic space-time modelling that enlighten considerably the long-lasting controversy about the nature and origins of the Black Death epidemic. Comparisons are made between the spatiotemporal characteristics of Black Death and bubonic plague, thus contributing to the debate concerning the Black Death etiology. Since Black Death had grave societal, public health, and financial effects, its rigorous study can offer valuable insight into these effects, as well as into similar effects that could result from potential contemporary epidemics.