Stock Market Crashes and Speculative Manias

Raises basic questions about the stability of capital markets and the potential for regulation. No index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Stock Market Crashes and Speculative Manias

A collection of articles published between the 1920s and the 1990s on speculative manias and stock market crashes, highlighting their similarities. Looks at the mania for tulips in Holland in the 17th century, schemes to refinance government debt in 18th-century France and Britain, the volatile American stock and real estate markets of the 19th century, and parallels between the stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987. Raises basic questions about the stability of capital markets and the potential for regulation. No index. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Manias Panics and Crashes

The third edition had its stimulus in the Japanese crash of January 1990, the effects of which carried through to decade. This new fourth edition covers the striking troubles of Mexico in 1994-95 and East Asia in 1997-98.

Manias  Panics and Crashes

Manias, Panics and Crashes was first published in 1978, and dealt with financial crises that were, for the most part, before World War II. Black Monday of October 1987, along with more research especially on the years from 1880 to 1893 indicated a need for a second look. The third edition had its stimulus in the Japanese crash of January 1990, the effects of which carried through to decade. This new fourth edition covers the striking troubles of Mexico in 1994-95 and East Asia in 1997-98.

Manias Panics and Crashes

This seventh edition of an investment classic has been thoroughly revised and expanded following the latest crises to hit international markets.

Manias  Panics  and Crashes

This seventh edition of an investment classic has been thoroughly revised and expanded following the latest crises to hit international markets. Renowned economist Robert Z. Aliber introduces the concept that global financial crises in recent years are not independent events, but symptomatic of an inherent instability in the international system.

Economists and the Stock Market

This book will be welcomed by bankers, financial and monetary economists, historians of economic thought and all those interested in the causes of the recent market crashes.

Economists and the Stock Market

The recent global financial crisis and role of the stock market led to many questioning how the international financial system operates. The authors of this book offer insights into these issues, contrasting speculative explanations with the efficient markets hypothesis.

The history of stock market crashes

Starting with the first big crash, the tulip mania, in the years of 1636 and 1637. Following, further big crashes up to recent days are presented and the reasons and outcomes of these are explained.

The history of stock market crashes

Academic Paper from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, Post University (Malcolm Baldrige School of Business), language: English, abstract: This paper was written in the course "Investment Management". It outlines the history of stock market crashes that occurred throughout time. Starting with the first big crash, the tulip mania, in the years of 1636 and 1637. Following, further big crashes up to recent days are presented and the reasons and outcomes of these are explained. A stock market crash can be defined as an extreme price collapse on the stock market. Usually this process takes a few days to a few weeks. During this period mostly panic sales, which generate a large excess supply and thus lead to drastically falling prices dominate the scene.

Speculative Behaviour Regime switching and Stock Market Crashes

The first explanation is based on historical accounts of manias and panics. Its key features are that overvaluation increases the probability of the expected size of a crash.

Speculative Behaviour  Regime switching and Stock Market Crashes

This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability of two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes. The first explanation is based on historical accounts of manias and panics. Its key features are that overvaluation increases the probability of the expected size of a crash. This explanation is examined using data from the United States for 1926 to 1989. The second explanation is based on switches in fundamentals. Section two of the paper develops models of speculative behaviour and switching fundamentals, and section three shows the relationship between speculative behaviour and a switching-regression specification, and tests the null hypothesis that stock market returns are unrelated to the deviation from fundamental price using parametric restrictions on the switching-regression specification. The final sections present parameter estimates of the model of switching fundamentals, discuss to what extent shifts in fundamentals explain the switching-regression results, and analyse how well the probabilities of collapse generated by each model accord with actual stock market crashes.

Why Stock Markets Crash

A specification test for speculative bubbles, Quarterly Journal of Economics 102, 553–580. White, E. N. (1996). Stock market crashes and speculative manias. In The International Library of macroeconomic and financial history 13.

Why Stock Markets Crash

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Patterns of Speculation

When the ticker ran late: the stock market boom and crash of 1929. In Crashes and Panics: The Lessons from History, ed. E.N. White. Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin. White, E.N. (ed.) (1996). Stock Market: Crashes and Speculative Manias.

Patterns of Speculation

The main objective of this 2002 book is to show that behind the bewildering diversity of historical speculative episodes it is possible to find hidden regularities, thus preparing the way for a unified theory of market speculation. Speculative bubbles require the study of various episodes in order for a comparative perspective to be obtained and the analysis developed in this book follows a few simple but unconventional ideas. Investors are assumed to exhibit the same basic behavior during speculative episodes whether they trade stocks, real estate, or postage stamps. The author demonstrates how some of the basic concepts of dynamical system theory, such as the notions of impulse response, reaction times and frequency analysis, play an instrumental role in describing and predicting speculative behavior. This book will serve as a useful introduction for students of econophysics, and readers with a general interest in economics as seen from the perspective of physics.

Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading

SCHWERT(G.W.)1996: Stock market crash of October 1987. inE.N. White ed.: Stock market crashes and speculative manias. Edwar Elgar. Cheltenham. SCOTT (F.D.) 1977: Sweden. The nation's history. University of Minnesota Press. Minneapolis.

Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading

This book contains a unified mathematical theory of speculation. Besides analysing stock markets, the book considers a wide range of speculative markets such as: real estate, commodities, postage-stamps, and antiquarian books. Various regularities are discussed. For instance, during a speculative episode, the price of expensive items increases more than the price of less expensive items. Such regularities pave the way for a mathematical theory of speculation. Being mainly empirical, the book is easy to read and does not require technical prerequisites in finance, economics or mathematics.

What Global Economic Crisis

Stock Market Crashes and Speculative Manias, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, pp. 154–77. Palley, T.I. (1993) 'Uncertainty, Expectations and the Future: If We Don't Know the Answers, What are the Questions'? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics ...

What Global Economic Crisis

Economics has become an excessively esoteric discipline. Opportunities to bridge the gap between theorizing and policymaking are becoming increasingly limited. One issue of great importance to modern policymakers is the relationship between globalization and economic crisis. With unprecedented trends towards globalization (in part propelled by developments in information technology), the repercussions of economic crisis are more profound than ever before, particularly for developing countries. What Global Economic Crisis? bridges the gap between theory and policy by examining the destabilising effects of financial crises on economic growth, stability and development. It also presents some innovative ideas intended to inform the design of institutions able to foster more effective international policy coordination.

Mass Production the Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression

Clearly, the stock market boom and crash were not the result of speculative mania but rather were rooted in fundamentals. Stock price increases, it could be argued, reflected the U.S. economy's increased productivity, itself the result ...

Mass Production  the Stock Market Crash  and the Great Depression

Economists and historians view the events of the 1920s, the stock market boom and crash, the Great Depression and the New Deal, as being largely independent. This work presents an integrated, empirically-consistent view of this important period arguing that all of these events can be traced back to a paradigm technology shock, namely the electrification of U.S. industry from 1910 to 1926. The author goes from electrification through the stock market boom to the tariffs of the late 20s to the stock market crash and depression followed by the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933.

The Application of Econophysics

White EN (1996) Stock market crashes and speculative manias. In The international library of macroeconomic and financial history, 13. An Elgar Reference Collection, Cheltenham, UK; Brookfield, US. Sornette D, Malevergne Y and Muzy JF ...

The Application of Econophysics

Econophysics is a newborn field of science bridging economics and physics. A special feature of this new science is the data analysis of high-precision market data. In economics arbitrage opportunity is strictly denied; however, by observing high-precision data we can prove the existence of arbitrage opportunity. Also, financial technology neglects the possibility of market prediction; however, in this book you can find many examples of predicted events. There are other surprising findings. This volume is the proceedings of a workshop on "application of econophysics" at which leading international researchers discussed their most recent results.

The Legacy of John Kenneth Galbraith

Stiglitz's observation that Galbraith included the role of stock market speculation in his explanation of the Great Crash of 1929, while Friedman ignored speculation and blamed the Federal Reserve, draws attention to Galbraith's theory ...

The Legacy of John Kenneth Galbraith

When John Kenneth Galbraith passed away on April 29, 2006, the economics profession lost one of its true giants. And this is not just because Galbraith was an imposing figure at 6 feet, 9 inches tall. Throughout his life, Galbraith advised Presidents, made important professional contributions to the discipline of economics, and also tried to explain economic ideas to the general public. This volume pays tribute to Galbraith’s life and career by explaining some of his major contributions to the canon of economic ideas. The papers describe the series of unique contributions that Galbraith made in many different areas. He was a founder of the Post Keynesian view of money, and a proponent of the Post Keynesian view that price controls were necessary to deal with the problem of inflation in a modern economy where large firms already control prices and prices are not determined by the market. He promulgated the view that firms manipulate individual preferences and tastes, through advertising and other means of persuasion, and he drew out the economic implications of this view. He was a student of financial frauds and euphoria, and a forerunner of the Post Keynesian/Minskean view of finance and how financial markets really work. This book was published as a special issue of the Review of Political Economy.

Stock Market Investment in Malaysia and Singapore

SPECULATIVE MANIAS : PAST AND PRESENT Those who do not learn from the lessons of history are doomed to repeat ... Being familiar with the history of the speculative manias even before the 1973 and 1981 local stock market crashes has ...

Stock Market Investment in Malaysia and Singapore


Finance and Financial Markets

10.18 Stockmarket crashes Between January 1987 and October 1987 most stock indices around the world had experienced ... It is argued that stockmarkets are sometimes subjected to speculative manias during which the market sometimes gets ...

Finance and Financial Markets

Finance and Financial Markets is a major text designed for introductory undergraduate, postgraduate and MBA courses in finance. It provides a comprehensive yet relatively non-technical introduction to modern day financial institutions, markets and instruments.

Extreme Events in Nature and Society

The Effect of the September 11th Tragedy on Airline Stock Returns, Working Paper (2002), see http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstractid=306133 White E.N., Stock market crashes and speculative manias. In: Capie F.H., ed, ...

Extreme Events in Nature and Society

Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

FINANCE FINANCIAL MARKETS

Stockmarket. crashes. Between January and October 1987 most stock indices around the world had experienced a bull ... It is argued that stockmarkets are sometimes subjected to speculative manias during which the market gets pushed well ...

FINANCE   FINANCIAL MARKETS


Money Banking and the Business Cycle

... ed., Stock Market Crashes and Speculative Manias (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1996),pp. 154–177. See pp. 156–157. 37. Garber, FamousFirst Bubbles, p.109and Carswell, TheSouthSea Bubble, p. 120. 38.

Money  Banking  and the Business Cycle

Money, Banking, and the Business Cycle provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing these mechanisms, and offers a robust prescription for reducing financial instability over the long-term. Volume I bridges tough economic theory with empirical evidence.

Trading on Sentiment

—Bernard Baruch, describing the environment before the 1929 stock market crash The ... The history of bubbles starts with the first recorded speculative bubble—the Dutch Tulip Mania of 16378—is punctuated by the first bubble with truly ...

Trading on Sentiment

In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Rich­ard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychol­ogy and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to so­cial media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privi­leged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.

The Role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the Financial Crisis

Review of Stock Market Crashes and Speculative Manias , edited by Eugene N. White , Journal of Economic History , September 1998 , 614-617 . Calomiris , Charles W. ( 2000 ) . U.S. Bank Deregulation in Historical Perspective , Cambridge ...

The Role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the Financial Crisis